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Prediction for CME (2023-12-12T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-12T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28120/-1
CME Note: Extremely faint partial halo CME in the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery only. Its source might very tentatively be the mid-size filament eruption starting around 2023-12-11T22:01Z and centered around ~W05N05, just N of the central (equatorial) coronal hole. The eruption is seen as a mid-size dimming area in AIA 193. Arrival signature of what is likely the combined shock of this and 2023-12-13T00:00Z CME (or just of the 2023-12-13T00:00 CME): a sharp increase in B total to initially to under 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s (possibly the arrival of and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T13:06Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -80.55 hour(s)
Difference: -2.15 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-12-18T19:30Z

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